This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels The Villans' Improbable Championship Bid
Just eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.